India’s solar industry is heading into the final quarter of 2026 after a record first half. But with domestic cell requirements reshaping procurement, transmission constraints affecting commissioning and manufacturing capacity expanding rapidly, what could Q4 actually look like?
India’s solar market has had a remarkable 2026 so far.
The country added a record 27 GW of solar capacity in the first half of 2026, 49% more than the 18 GW added during the same period in 2025, according to Mercom India Research. Solar alone accounted for 76% of the 36 GW of new power capacity added in the first half.
Wood Mackenzie puts the first-half number even higher at 34 GW DC, reflecting differences in methodology and reporting. It forecasts India’s full-year additions could cross 50 GW, exceeding the previous annual record of 49 GW set in 2025.
But there is an important catch.
The same policies and market forces driving India’s solar expansion are also creating new constraints.
As Q4 approaches, the industry is therefore entering a new phase—one where supply, technology, grid readiness and project economics may matter as much as demand.
Here are seven trends we think are worth watching.
1. Q4 could remain strong, but the H1 rush may be difficult to repeat
The first half of 2026 was unusually strong.
Mercom recorded 15.3 GW in Q1 and 11.7 GW in Q2, taking H1 additions to 27 GW. However, Q2 installations were already 24% lower than Q1, while large-scale solar installations fell 37% quarter-on-quarter to 7.9 GW.
Why?
Developers were racing to commission projects before two important changes:
- ALMM List-II for solar cells took effect on June 1, 2026
- The inter-state transmission-system charge waiver reduced from 75% to 50% for projects commissioned from July 2026.
Wood Mackenzie expects H2 momentum to slow because of cell constraints and rising module prices. However, a limited exemption for qualifying net-metering and open-access projects until December 31, 2026 could provide some support.
Our speculation
Q4 could still deliver substantial installations, but the market may be more execution-constrained than demand-constrained.
The projects are there. The question is whether developers can secure compliant equipment, transmission connectivity and commercially viable project economics quickly enough.
“The concern now is whether this pace can continue.”
— Raj Prabhu, CEO, Mercom Capital Group
What to watch in Q4
- Quarterly commissioning volumes
- Large-scale project execution
- Open-access and C&I projects
- Grid connectivity
- Projects seeking ALMM-related relief
2. Domestic solar cells could remain the industry’s biggest bottleneck
The most consequential change in India’s solar supply chain this year may be the implementation of ALMM List-II.
Under the framework, applicable projects need to use solar modules manufactured using cells from approved domestic manufacturers. MNRE implemented the requirement from June 1, 2026, while subsequently providing a limited exemption for qualifying net-metering and open-access projects commissioned by December 31.
The problem is the gap between module and cell capacity.
Mercom reported that ALMM List-II had reached around 31.8 GW of enlisted cell capacity by July, while India’s annual solar cell requirement could exceed 50 GW.
And industry executives are openly warning about the near-term supply situation.
Nimish Jain, Executive Vice President at Vikram Solar, told Mercom India that India could face a TOPCon cell shortage over the next six to nine months as domestic cell manufacturing catches up with module capacity.
Wood Mackenzie reaches a similar conclusion from another angle: it estimates that 14 GW of new cell manufacturing capacity is currently under construction, and any delays could deepen India’s import dependence and push prices higher.
Our speculation
Cell availability could remain one of the defining Q4 issues—particularly for TOPCon.
This makes procurement planning increasingly important.
For developers, the question may no longer be simply:
“What module price can we get?”
It may be:
“Can we secure the right domestic cell supply at the right time?”
3. Solar system prices could stay elevated
Record installations do not automatically mean falling solar prices.
In fact, Wood Mackenzie expects the opposite in the near term.
Its August 2026 analysis estimates that utility-scale solar system prices could rise by around 20% by Q4 2026, primarily because domestic cell supply has not kept pace with module demand.
And the pressure may not disappear immediately.
Wood Mackenzie estimates that cell production could reach 29 GW in 2027, still approximately 21 GW below India’s average annual module demand of 50 GW. It therefore expects system prices to decline by only around 3% between Q4 2026 and Q4 2027.
At the same time, MNRE has begun asking ALMM-listed cell and module manufacturers to submit monthly price ranges for domestically manufactured products, signalling increased attention to pricing transparency following the implementation of ALMM-II.
Our speculation
Q4 may be a relatively firm pricing environment rather than the price-correction quarter some buyers might expect.
The industry could see greater emphasis on:
- Long-term supply agreements
- Domestic cell procurement
- Manufacturing integration
- Inventory planning
- Technology-based cost optimisation
4. TOPCon is likely to dominate the technology conversation
If cells are the immediate bottleneck, TOPCon is likely to be at the centre of it.
Mercom’s manufacturing data shows that approximately 70% of India’s installed module manufacturing capacity was based on TOPCon technology at the end of 2025.
The domestic cell ecosystem is also rapidly adding TOPCon capacity.
In July, Energetica India reported that Avaada Electro entered ALMM List-II with 610 MW of N-type TOPCon G12 cell capacity, taking total enlisted cell capacity to 31.758 GW across 14 manufacturers.
Other manufacturers are expanding too. GREW Solar applied for ALMM inclusion for 3.5 GW of TOPCon G12R cell capacity, while Websol is converting a 600 MW PERC line into a 750 MW TOPCon line.
The technology shift is therefore not theoretical—it is already visible in India’s manufacturing investments.
Our speculation
Q4 could see TOPCon consolidate its position as the default high-efficiency technology for much of India’s new manufacturing capacity.
The competitive conversation will increasingly move beyond wattage to:
efficiency + degradation + temperature performance + bifacial gain + reliability.
“India could face a shortage of TOPCon solar cells over the next six to nine months.”
— Nimish Jain, Executive Vice President, Vikram Solar
That makes TOPCon simultaneously one of India’s biggest opportunities—and near-term supply challenges.
5. Transmission could become the next major constraint
India has built an impressive solar project pipeline.
But a project being built is not the same as a project delivering electricity.
Mercom estimates that India’s large-scale solar pipeline stood at 208 GW as of June 2026, with another 151 GW of projects tendered and awaiting auction.
Yet transmission availability is already affecting commissioning.
Mercom CEO Raj Prabhu noted that several projects are nearing completion but cannot connect to the grid because evacuation infrastructure is not ready.
The issue goes beyond solar project timelines.
Reuters reported in August that inadequate transmission infrastructure had contributed to renewable-energy curtailment in Rajasthan and Gujarat, with India curtailing 8,133 GWh—or 14%—of solar generation between April and June 2026. Industry sources estimated renewable developers had suffered around ₹45 billion in losses since February 2025 due to transmission constraints.
Sanjeev Aggarwal, founder and executive chairman of Hexa Climate, told Reuters that repeated and uncompensated curtailment can increase financing risk because lenders need confidence in future generation.
Our speculation
In Q4, grid readiness could increasingly determine project timelines—not just equipment availability.
India’s next solar bottleneck may therefore be less about generating electricity and more about moving it.
6. Storage could move from “future opportunity” to immediate requirement
The transmission challenge points towards another major trend: storage.
As solar penetration increases, the value of generation depends increasingly on when electricity can be delivered.
The global energy-storage market is already expanding rapidly. According to InfoLink Consulting data reported by pv magazine, global energy-storage cell shipments reached 467.84 GWh in H1 2026, up 94.8% year-on-year.
That does not directly translate into India’s storage deployment, but it shows the scale and speed of the technology’s global expansion.
For India, the argument is particularly relevant as renewable generation grows faster than the grid’s ability to absorb it.
The result could be greater interest in:
- Solar + BESS
- Hybrid renewable projects
- Firm and dispatchable renewable power
- Peak-hour energy delivery
- Grid-scale storage
Our speculation
Q4 could see storage increasingly discussed not as an add-on to solar, but as part of the infrastructure required to scale solar sustainably.
The industry’s question could increasingly shift from:
How many GW can we install?
to:
How much renewable electricity can we deliver when the grid actually needs it?
7. India’s manufacturing boom could enter its next phase
India’s solar manufacturing story is moving rapidly upstream.
ALMM-listed cell manufacturing capacity has grown from approximately 13 GW to around 31 GW in just one year, according to Amit Manohar, Secretary General of the Indian Solar Manufacturers Association. He expects the pipeline of commissioned, under-construction and announced projects to take capacity beyond 100 GW by June 2027.
At the module level, India’s manufacturing base is already much larger.
Mercom estimates that around 70% of installed module manufacturing capacity was TOPCon-based at the end of 2025.
And the upstream push is continuing.
MNRE has already laid out the framework for ALMM List-III, which will eventually extend domestic-content requirements to ingots and wafers. The first List-III framework is tied to achieving at least three independent wafer manufacturers with a combined capacity of 15 GW.
But there is a catch.
India’s manufacturing capacity is expanding faster than some parts of its upstream ecosystem.
Tanmoy Duari, CEO of AXITEC Energy India, wrote in pv magazine India that annual cell demand could exceed 50 GW, while effective domestic production remains significantly lower, particularly for advanced technologies such as TOPCon.
Our speculation
Q4 could mark the beginning of a new manufacturing race: not just to build more module capacity, but to build an integrated cell-to-wafer-to-ingot ecosystem.
And that could fundamentally change the competitive landscape over the next few years.
Q4 2026: What the Data Is Telling Us
Seven trends. One underlying story.
| What the data says | What it could mean for Q4 |
| 27 GW solar added in H1 2026 | Installation momentum remains strong |
| 50+ GW forecast for full-year 2026 | India could set another annual record |
| 208 GW large-scale pipeline | Project opportunity remains substantial |
| ~31.8 GW ALMM-listed cell capacity | Domestic cell supply remains tight |
| TOPCon dominates much of new manufacturing | Technology transition is accelerating |
| 14% solar curtailment in Apr–Jun | Grid infrastructure is becoming critical |
| 20% Q4 system-price increase forecast | Cost pressure could remain elevated |
| Cell capacity expected to exceed 100 GW by 2027 | Current shortage may be transitional |
So, What Are We Actually Speculating?
The data doesn’t suggest that India’s solar growth is slowing down.
It suggests that the nature of the growth is changing.
The first half of 2026 was dominated by accelerated project commissioning.
Q4 could be more about execution, supply-chain resilience and system integration.
We could see:
Strong demand, but tighter procurement.
More manufacturing, but a continuing cell gap.
Higher solar capacity, but greater pressure on transmission.
More efficient modules, but stronger demand for TOPCon cells.
More renewable generation, but a greater need for storage.
And perhaps most importantly:
More domestic manufacturing, but an increasing need to integrate the entire value chain.
That is why Q4 2026 may be less about asking “Will India’s solar market grow?”
The data already gives us a fairly clear answer to that.
The more interesting question is:
Can India’s supply chain and grid infrastructure grow fast enough to keep up?
That is the speculation worth watching.
Sources & Further Reading
Official data & policy
Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) — Installed capacity and ALMM updates
MNRE — ALMM & Solar Manufacturing Updates
Ministry of New and Renewable Energy / PIB — December 2026 ALMM exemption for qualifying net-metering and open-access projects
PIB — ALMM List-II Policy Update, July 2026
Market data & forecasts
Mercom India Research — Record 27 GW H1 2026 additions, 208 GW pipeline and transmission constraints
Mercom India — Q2 & H1 2026 Solar Market Update
Wood Mackenzie — 50+ GW 2026 forecast, cell shortage and projected 20% Q4 system-price increase
Wood Mackenzie — India Solar Outlook 2026
ETEnergyWorld — Wood Mackenzie analysis on ALMM-II, cell supply and 2026 installations
ETEnergyWorld — India Solar Additions to Cross 50 GW in 2026
Industry & technology
pv magazine India — Cell manufacturing, ALMM-II, TOPCon and domestic-content trends
pv magazine India — Beyond Modules: Why Cell Manufacturing Will Shape India’s Solar Growth
Energetica India — Latest ALMM-II additions and domestic TOPCon cell capacity
Energetica India — Avaada Enters ALMM List-II with TOPCon Capacity
Grid & infrastructure
Reuters — Renewable curtailment, transmission constraints and potential financing response
Reuters — India Weighs Low-Cost Loans for Renewable Projects Hit by Power Curbs
All projections and “speculations” in this article are based on publicly available industry data, published forecasts and expert commentary available as of August 2026. Actual Q4 outcomes may vary depending on policy changes, commissioning schedules, equipment availability, cell prices, transmission readiness and project economics.
